According to research from The Diffusion Group, close to one-third of non-HDTV households are interested in purchasing a new HDTV in the next six months - a very encouraging sign for HDTV manufacturers and, by relation, high-def DVD manufacturers.
The same research also found that the characteristics of these "HDTV Intenders" vary widely from that of current HDTV owners. HDTV Intenders tend to be younger, single, more ethnically diverse, and have lower annual household incomes than current HDTV owners - in many respects more characteristic of mainstream consumers than the early adopters who today own an HDTV.
While this trend could in theory benefit either Blu-ray or HD DVD, the data suggests otherwise. Among HDTV Intenders who are likely to purchase a new high-def DVD player in the next six months, 43 percent prefer HD DVD, 27 percent prefer Blu-ray, and 30 percent are undecided.
"The strength of this preference and its correlation to mainstream attributes are notable," states Michael Greeson, president and principal analyst with The Diffusion Group. "Today's high-def DVD owner is likely an early adopter with a knack for power gaming; most certainly tech-sophisticates not at all mainstream in temperament. The next wave of buyers is comprised of early mass-market consumers, a much larger segment with a focus on practical considerations such as price. It is TDG's opinion that the format which can best address the needs of mainstream consumers will emerge as the winner of this format war."
